Our Planet cannot accommodate our need and avarice for food. We have to change what we eat before its far too late, writes Protector columnist George Monbiot

Brexit the crushing of democracy by billionaires the following financial crash a rogue US president: not one of them keeps me awake during the night. This really is notbecause I do not care Icare greatly. Its only because I’ve got a bigger question onmy mind. Where’s all of the food likely to originate from?

By the center of this century you will see 2 or 3 billion more and more people on the planet. Any of the issues I’m going to list may help precipitate mass starvation. Which is before you think about the way they might interact.

The problem begins where everything begins: with soil. The UNs famous projection that, at current rates of soil loss, the earth has 60 years of harvests left, seems to become based on a new set of figures. Partially because of soil degradation, yields happen to be declining on 20% from the worlds croplands.

Now consider water loss. In places like the North China Plain, the central U . s . States, California and north-western India one of the worlds critical growing regions quantity of a groundwater accustomed to irrigate crops happen to be reaching crisis point. Water within the Upper Ganges aquifer, for instance, has been withdrawn at 50 times its recharge rate. But, to help keep pace with food demand, maqui berry farmers in south Asia expect to use between 80 and 200% more water through the year 2050. Where willit originate from?

The following constraint is temperature. One study suggests that, everything else being equal, with every degree celsius of warming the worldwide yield of grain drops by 3%, wheat by 6% and maize by 7%. These predictions might be positive. Research published in the journal Agricultural & Environmental Letters finds that 4C of warming in america corn belt could reduce maize yields by between 84 and 100%.

This is because high temperatures during the night disrupt the pollination process. However this describes only one element of the likely pollination crisis. Insectageddon, brought on by the worldwide deployment of scarcely tested pesticides, will take into account the remainder. Already, in certain parts around the globe, personnel are now pollinating plants by hand. But thats viable only which are more costly crops.

There are the structural factors. Simply because they have a tendency to use more work, grow a broader selection of crops and work the land more carefully, small maqui berry farmers, usually, grow more food per hectare than large ones. Within the poorer regions around the globe, individuals with less than fivehectares own 30% from the farmland but produce 70% of the food. Since 2000, a place of fertile ground roughly two times how big the United kingdom has been seized by land grabbers and consolidated intolarge farms, generally growing crops for export as opposed to the food necessary for poor.

While these multiple disasters unfoldon land, the seas are now being sieved of all things but plastic. Despite a massive increase in effort (bigger motorboats, bigger engines, more gear), the world fish catch is declining by roughly 1% a year, as populations collapse. The worldwide land grab is mirrored with a global ocean grab: small fishers are displaced by big corporations, conveying fish to individuals who require it less but pay more. About 3billion people depend to some large extent on seafood protein. Which side it originate from?

All this is with enough contentration. But because peoples incomes increase, their diet program has a tendency to shift from plant protein to protein. World meat production has quadrupled in 50 years, but global average consumption is still only half that of the UK where we eat roughly our bodyweight in meat each year and merely more than a third of america level. Due to the way we eat, the UKs farmland footprint (the land requiredto meet our demand) is 2.4 occasions how big its farming area. If everybody aspires for this diet, exactly how will we accommodate it?

Graph from Our World in Data.

The profligacy of animals farming is astonishing. Already, 36% from the calories grown by means of grain and pulses and 53% from the protein are used to feed farm animals. Two-thirds of the meals are lost in conversion from plant to animal. A graph produced last week by The World in Data shows that, typically, you’ll need .01m2 of land to make a gram of protein from beans or peas, but 1m2 to create it from beefcattle or sheep: one hundred-folddifference.

It is true much from the grazing land occupied by cattle and sheep cannot be employed to grow your crops. However it would certainly have sustained wildlife and environments. Rather, marshes are drained, trees are felled as well as their seedlings grazed out, predators are exterminated, wild herbivores fenced out along with other existence forms progressively erased as grazing systems intensify. Astonishing places like the rainforests of Madagascar and South america are laid waste to create room for yet more cattle.

Because there’s insufficient land to satisfy both need and avarice, a worldwide transition to eating creatures means snatching food in the mouths from the poor. Additionally, it means the environmental cleansing of just about every corner of theplanet.

I see the last rich ecosystems snuffed out, the last of the global megafauna lions, elephants, whales and tuna vanishing. Photograph: Douglas Klug/Getty Images

The shift in diets would be impossible to sustain even if there were no growth in the human population. But the greater the number of people, the greater the hunger meat eating will cause. From a baseline of 2010, the UNexpects meat consumption to rise by70% by 2030 (this really is three occasions the speed of population growth). Partially consequently, the global demand for crops could double (in the 2005 baseline) by 2050. The land needed to develop them doesn’t exist.

When i state this prevents me up during the night, I am talking about it. I’m affected by visions of depriving people trying to escape fromgrey wastes, being beaten back byarmed police. I begin to see the last wealthy environments snuffed out, all of the the worldwide megafauna lions, tigers, whales and tuna disappearing. So when I wake, I am unable to assure myself it had become just anightmare.

Others have different dreams: the fantasy of the feeding craze that neednever finish, the fairytale of reconciling ongoing economic growth witha living world. If humankind spirals into societal collapse, these dreams would be the cause.

There aren’t any easy solutions, however the crucial change is really a shift from your animal- to some plant-based diet. Everything else being equal, stopping both meat production and using farmland to develop biofuels could provide enough calories for an additional 4 billion people anddouble the protein available for people to drink. Artificial meat can help:one paper suggests it cuts down on water useby a minimum of 82% and land useby 99%.

The following eco-friendly revolution won’t be such as the 4g iphone. It’ll depend this is not on flogging the land to dying, but on reconsidering how it’s used by us and why. Are we able to do that, or will we the more potent people now consuming the living planet find mass dying simpler to look at than altering what we eat?

George Monbiot is really a Protector columnist

Find out more: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/11/mass-starvation-humanity-flogging-land-death-earth-food